When Refugee Exposure Increases Incumbent Support through Development: Evidence from Uganda

סמינר החוג למדיניות ציבורית

יום רביעי 29 דצמבר 2021 שעה 11:00

חדר 527 בנין נפתלי, הפקולטה למדעי החברה

קישור לזום:

https://tau-ac-il.zoom.us/j/89819939644

מרצה: פרופ' גיא גרוסמן, החוג למדע המדינה, אוניברסיטת פנסילבניה

When Refugee Exposure Increases Incumbent Support through Development: Evidence from Uganda

Abstract

How does exposure to refugees affect elections, development, and citizen support for migration within the Global South? In the context of wealthy consolidated democracies, recent studies have found that when voters are more exposed to refugees, they punish incumbents and turn to far-right parties. Yet there is a dearth of studies on the electoral consequences of refugee-hosting in developing countries, where the majority of refugees reside and politics often do not fall on a left-right divide. We explore this question in Uganda, one of the largest refugee-hosting countries. Combining information on the populations and locations of refugee settlements with four waves of national elections data at the parish level, we find that greater exposure to refugees increases incumbent support. Unique longitudinal data on access to healthcare, schools, and roads coupled with national survey data suggest that this effect is due to positive externalities of refugee-hosting on local public goods provision.